عرض عملي: التنبؤ بحمل إطلاق السوق

خطوة بخطوة

1. Define drivers: sellers onboarded, listings per seller, orders per listing, countries.
2. Measure existing ratios (requests per order) and choose analogies for new ones, marking assumptions.
3. Build low, base, and high cases for years one to three and add campaign peaks.
4. Identify the services that saturate first and the lead time for each fix.
5. Planned mistake: assume marketplace traffic looks like retail traffic. Fix: model seller bulk uploads and feed syncs, which move the bottleneck to listing ingestion and search indexing.
6. Present the forecast with sensitivity and the review schedule.